Kalshi has ended its advisory relationship with Donald Trump Jr., closing a Trump Jr. Kalshi arrangement that lasted nearly two years after the president’s son’s venture firm dramatically increased its financial stake in rival prediction-market platform Polymarket.
Kalshi confirmed the move on Thursday, November 12, saying the split was mutual. The company’s spokesperson, Dani Lever, said Kalshi and Trump Jr. agreed that advising Kalshi while 1789 Capital sat among Polymarket’s top investors created a conflict of interest, and thanked him for his contributions to marketing the platform.
Why the Trump Jr. Kalshi Tie Broke
The timeline reads like a slow-motion collision. Trump Jr. joined Kalshi as a paid strategic adviser in January 2025, shortly after his father’s second inauguration, and reportedly received an equity stake worth roughly $300,000. In August 2025 he joined Polymarket’s advisory board as 1789 Capital made its initial investment – a combination the parties said at the time would not affect the Kalshi arrangement.
That tolerance ran out this summer. In August 2026, 1789 Capital announced a major new position in Polymarket and led a reported funding round of roughly $1 billion, prompting Kalshi and Trump Jr. to open conflict-of-interest discussions. By October, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour was publicly describing his partner’s ties to the company as an optics issue while insisting the relationship never bought favor with federal regulators.
The pressure sharpened further on November 10, when Senators Elizabeth Warren and Jeff Merkley wrote to White House counsel raising ethics concerns – including bets placed by a former staffer – around the prediction-market industry. Two days later, the advisory contract was over. Trump Jr. remains an adviser to Polymarket; it is unclear whether he retains his Kalshi equity stake.
What It Means for Kalshi, Polymarket and Election Betting
The exit lands one week after Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress and signaled intentions to investigate the Trump family’s prediction-market investments and crack down on the industry. More than 20 states have already litigated over the legality of election betting, and both Kalshi and Polymarket have denied that any Trump tie influenced administration support for the sector.
For Kalshi, shedding the advisory relationship removes an obvious line of attack just as the company pursues expansion – including plans for US equity derivatives. For Trump Jr., the episode underscores how quickly a portfolio of overlapping allegiances in crypto’s political fringes can become a liability. Reporting via CNBC, The Guardian, The Hill and Reuters.
