Chinese on-chain analyst Murphy argues that the current Bitcoin market cycle is fundamentally different from previous ones, primarily due to a notable shift in the behavior of whale wallets (those holding at least 100 BTC).
Concentration Remains High
Whales currently control approximately 12.17 million BTC, which accounts for roughly 61% of the total Bitcoin supply. This level of concentration is near the peak seen during the 2021 bull run, significantly higher than in the 2017 cycle. Despite some holdings being transferred to new institutional investors, the overall control remains concentrated among large players.
A Shift from Panic to Restraint
Murphy’s key finding is that while market control is highly concentrated, the behavior of these large holders has changed drastically, pointing to a new phase of market maturity:
- Past Cycles (2017–2022): In previous cycles, whale panic selling amplified market crashes. During the 2017-2018 collapse, whales collectively lost about $1 billion a day. This trend worsened in 2021–2022, with single-day losses hitting $3 billion (May 2021) and $4 billion (Luna crash), effectively marking the end of those bull markets.
- The Current Cycle (2024–2025): Recent data shows far more contained selling. The sharpest wave of selling in this period was a $2 billion loss on August 5, 2024. Even during major volatility events in 2025—such as the October 11 crash—whale losses barely reached $400 million.
This sustained restraint suggests a long-term conviction among large investors. Murphy concludes that with whales showing less panic, a devastating 80% drawdown—a common feature of past bear markets—now appears unlikely.
October 2025, Cryptoniteuae
