Bitcoin’s price surged 12.14% last week, recovering September losses and leading a market rally that saw altcoins like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) post slightly smaller gains.
The primary drivers of this bull run were a series of events suggesting that global monetary policy is set to ease:
- US Government Shutdown: Market participants saw the US government shutdown as a major source of economic uncertainty, which dramatically increased the probability of an October Federal Reserve interest rate cut from 89% to 98%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Bitcoin’s ascent began immediately after the shutdown was confirmed.
- Weak Jobs Data: The September US ADP Employment Report, which showed a loss of -32,000 jobs (missing the +50,000 forecast), reinforced the view of a cooling labor market. This, combined with potential Republican-led federal employee layoffs during the shutdown, could push the unemployment rate higher and force the Fed to pursue additional rate cuts through June of next year.
- Japanese Political Shift: The election of Sanae Takaichi as LDP president in Japan is expected to lead to monetary easing policies that will weaken the yen. This global sentiment contributed to Bitcoin briefly hitting a new all-time high of over $125,500 over the weekend.
In short, the rally is fueled by investors anticipating an increase in global liquidity.
Upcoming Events to Watch
The immediate challenge for Bitcoin will be the US Treasury’s bond auctions on Monday and Tuesday, which will issue $249 billion in short-term bonds. This massive issuance could temporarily squeeze the market’s surplus liquidity and test if Bitcoin can sustain its three-day, 10%+ rally.
Key macro events this week include the release of the September FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday and a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday, though these are not expected to change the strong market expectation of an October rate cut. Volatility is more likely to come from any new developments regarding the government shutdown or the proposed layoffs of federal employees.
October 2025, Cryptoniteuae
