Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer says Bitcoin $300,000 by 2029 is now his long-term target — a notable escalation from his earlier, flatter outlook. The Director of Global Macro updated his Bitcoin outlook in late September 2026, with coverage published October 1 via Yahoo Finance / 24-7 Wall St. and U.Today.
Timmer’s revision includes a near-term target of $100,000 and the claim that Bitcoin may have entered a new four-year bull market — a reversal of his prior view that 2026 would be a flat year. At the time of the projection, Bitcoin was trading near $84,000, implying roughly 19% upside to $100,000 and about 257–400% to the 2029 target.
Why this Fidelity analyst projects Bitcoin $300,000 by 2029
The engine behind the call is a Power Law framework: Timmer treats Bitcoin’s price path as cyclical and mathematically driven, plotting a logarithmic linear progression rather than treating every wiggle as new information. He layers on the 52-week Z-score of Bitcoin’s ratio to gold — a mean-reversion gauge that tells him how stretched BTC is relative to the monetary metal at any given moment. When the ratio sits cheap against the Power Law trend, the model argues for accumulation, not panic.
The Power Law model behind the call
Power Law adherents argue Bitcoin’s adoption curve — driven by network growth and fixed supply — tracks a smooth exponential over decades, with deviations reverting. It is an elegant story, and it has been right more often than skeptics expected. It is also, as ever, a model: the $300,000 figure is a long-dated projection roughly three years out, not a Fidelity house forecast but one strategist’s published view.
What could go wrong
Follow-up coverage has already flagged the tension between Timmer’s bullishness and elevated U.S. yields, which compete directly for the same risk budget. Macro shocks, regulatory reversals or a break in the gold-ratio relationship could all invalidate the setup. The projection joins a crowded shelf of calls on the same wall — see our audited case for Bitcoin at $180K and the 2026 ETF timeline for how institutional flows have tracked these cycles — and, like every forecast, it will be judged by the tape rather than the model.
