Key US Economic Data to Watch This Week That Could Influence Bitcoin’s $120K Momentum

Despite Bitcoin ($BTC) trading strongly above the $120,000 level, its short-term direction this week may be determined by critical US economic events, as the influence of US data on crypto has notably returned in 2025.

Critical US Economic Signals

Several events on the calendar could act as either a headwind or tailwind for the crypto market:

1. September FOMC Minutes (Most Critical):
   • The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting will reveal the reasoning behind the Fed’s first rate cut in nine months, which lowered the federal funds rate to 4.00–4.25%.
   • Impact: Any hints suggesting further rate cuts would be bullish for Bitcoin, likely extending its gains. Conversely, indications of no further cuts for the rest of the year could trigger a short-term sell-off.
   • Note: Some experts, like analyst xAlex, believe the minutes may not significantly move the market since they do not include new economic projections.
2. Jerome Powell Opening Remarks:
   • Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Thursday, October 9th, will be closely watched, coming just hours after the FOMC minutes.
   • Impact: Traders will scrutinize his remarks for clues on the Fed’s 2025 policy path, specifically regarding potential future rate cuts. Dovish or hawkish statements could inspire significant Bitcoin volatility based on investor sentiment.
3. Initial Jobless Claims:
   • This data, due every Thursday, tracks the number of US citizens who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time last week. This data point is increasingly important given the labor market’s growing influence as a Bitcoin macro factor.
   • Impact: Economists use this as an early warning signal for the economy. A shift to the downside (e.g., claims crossing 300k on the 4-week average) suggests a contracting labor market, which could pose a risk to financial markets.

Uncertainty Due to Government Shutdown

It is important to note that the ongoing US government shutdown introduces considerable uncertainty regarding the accurate and timely release of this week’s key economic data, leaving many events on the balance.

October 2025, Cryptoniteuae