After one of its steepest quarterly declines—a nearly 23% drop over the last 30 days—XRP is showing critical signs of an imminent market reversal. On-chain data and technical indicators are converging to suggest that the selling pressure has reached an exhaustion point, creating a potential launchpad for recovery.
Investor Capitulation Reaches One-Year Low
The most compelling signal comes from investor behavior, measured by the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL):
- Short-Term Holders (STH) in Deep Loss: The STH NUPL has plummeted to –0.20, a one-year low. This deep negative reading signifies widespread capitulation, a state where most recent buyers are holding losses. Historically, previous dips to similar levels (e.g., in April and June) were followed by sharp rebounds of 20% to 74%.
- Long-Term Holders (LTH) Fatigue: The LTH NUPL has also dropped to a six-month low of 0.53, indicating diminishing profits even for older investors. When both groups show maximum pain, it often signals a market bottom is near.
Hidden Bullish Divergence on the Charts
The price momentum is backing the on-chain fatigue:
- Hidden Bullish Divergence: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is displaying a hidden bullish divergence. This pattern occurs when the price forms a higher low while the RSI registers a lower low, indicating that the underlying uptrend from April remains intact and the recent drop is merely a temporary cooling-off phase.
Key Levels for Confirmation
The correctional phase appears to be completing as multiple “death crossovers” (where shorter EMAs drop below longer EMAs) have already played out. For a confirmed recovery:
- Initial Strength: A daily close above $2.44 is the first sign of renewed buying interest.
- Confirmed Breakout: A decisive move above $2.59 (near the 200-day EMA) would target resistance at $2.82 and potentially $3.10.
- Risk Warning: The bullish setup weakens if XRP slips below $2.28, which could open the door for a retest of the cycle bottom near $1.77.
The confluence of short-term holder capitulation and a strong technical momentum signal suggests XRP is well-positioned for an early recovery if buyers can capitalize on these “discounted” prices.
October 2025, Cryptoniteuae
