A new study by Satoshi Action Education projects a 75% probability that Bitcoin’s price will exceed $4.81 million by April 2036. The research, led by economist Murray A. Rudd, used an updated probability model that factors in supply constraints and increasing institutional demand.
The study provides a range of price projections for April 2036, with the median projection falling between $6.55 million and $6.96 million. The model’s upper bounds are even more optimistic, with a 25% chance of exceeding $10.22 million and a 5% chance of reaching as high as $14.76 million. In the most extreme scenarios, prices could approach $50 million.
These projections are driven by Bitcoin’s hard supply cap of 21 million coins, and the study anticipates that long-term storage and institutional activity will further reduce the available liquid supply. The model’s “stress-path simulations” show that if the liquid supply drops below 2 million BTC, prices could accelerate rapidly.
The new projections are significantly higher than the study’s previous report, as this updated model incorporates more aggressive supply-demand imbalances and structural constraints. The findings suggest important implications for long-term investment strategies and may require policymakers to address issues related to custody concentration and capital flows as institutional adoption increases.
August 2025, Cryptoniteuae
