Bitcoin (BTC) recently shattered its all-time high, soaring to $123,218 on Binance on July 13. However, on-chain data now reveals a shift in holder behavior that could challenge the cryptocurrency’s sustained bullish momentum.
Long-Term Holders Take Profits, Short-Term Holders Buy In
According to IT Tech, a contributor on CryptoQuant Quicktake, long-term Bitcoin holders (LTHs)—those who have held BTC for over 155 days—have begun to distribute their holdings. This suggests that seasoned investors are taking profits after the significant price surge.
Conversely, short-term holders (STHs)—who have held BTC for less than 155 days—have turned net positive, indicating they’re buying into the current rally. This pattern of LTH distribution coinciding with STH accumulation has historically led to cooling phases or local tops for BTC, as seen in April 2021 and November 2023 when spot demand eventually faded.
Warning Signs from Exchange Inflows and Whales
To confirm this trend, IT Tech suggests closely monitoring exchange inflows and funding rates. A surge in spot BTC inflows to crypto exchanges could signal increased selling pressure, potentially derailing the current rally.
Further supporting this view, CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain points to the Spent Output Value Ranges (SOVR) indicator. This metric shows a notable spike in BTC transfers to exchanges from wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC, typically associated with whales. The SOVR indicator helps identify which investor segments—retail, mid-sized, or institutional—are driving market activity. This aligns with the observation that long-term holders, often whales, are increasing their deposits to exchanges. Should selling pressure intensify, Bitcoin could see a correction down to a support level near $111,800.
Mixed Signals: Some Analysts Remain Bullish
Despite the warnings from LTH distribution and increased whale transfers to exchanges, not all analysts believe the current rally is exhausted.
For example, the STH Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) indicator suggests that BTC may still be undervalued, hinting at further upside potential. If this holds true, Bitcoin could climb as high as $150,000 before any significant pullback. Additionally, a recent $2 billion injection of liquidity into major crypto derivatives platforms could help reignite bullish momentum.
However, caution remains paramount. The Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross has been steadily climbing, which can be an early sign of an overheated market. At press time, BTC is trading at $118,754, up 0.4% in the past 24 hours.
July 2025, Cryptoniteuae
