The recent rally in XRP, which has seen its price surge over 500% to a high of $3.11 in the past nine months, has placed nearly 94% of its circulating supply into a profitable position. However, this high level of profitability is raising concerns among traders, as it has historically preceded significant price corrections. For example, similar profitability levels in early 2018 and April 2021 were followed by crashes of 95% and 85%, respectively.
Adding to the red flags, XRP’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator has entered the “belief-denial” zone—a level that has also coincided with previous market tops. While not yet at “euphoria” levels, the reading suggests that the market is sitting on heavy gains, and a further increase could trigger large-scale profit-taking.
On the technical front, XRP is consolidating in a descending triangle pattern, a formation that often signals a bearish outcome. A decisive close below the $3.05 support level could lead to a drop toward $2.39, representing a 23.5% decline. Conversely, a breakout above the pattern’s descending resistance could invalidate this bearish scenario and potentially push the price higher, with some analysts targeting a rally to $6. Ultimately, XRP is at a critical juncture, and its next move will likely depend on whether new institutional demand can absorb the potential selling pressure from current profit-takers.
August 2025, Cryptoniteuae
