Ether's price could see a massive 257% increase, reaching $12,000 by the end of 2025, according to Dr. Sean Dawson, head of research at the options DeFi protocol Derive. He attributes this potential surge to the successful rollout of Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade and a favorable regulatory environment under the Trump administration.
At the time of publication, Ether (ETH) was trading at approximately $3,361, with Dawson suggesting that the "bullish case" for the cryptocurrency would see it hit $12,000 if Ethereum successfully implements its Pectra upgrade. He noted that the upgrade is designed to enhance the network’s scalability and efficiency, which would drive broader adoption of Ethereum. Additionally, Dawson highlighted that a regulatory-friendly environment, supported by Trump’s administration, could further spur Ether’s growth.
Ethereum’s Pectra Upgrade: A Game-Changer for the Network
The Pectra upgrade, scheduled for the first quarter of 2025, is expected to improve Ethereum’s overall performance, particularly its scalability. Dawson pointed out that Ethereum's success will depend on its ability to integrate real-world assets (RWAs), attract greater inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and extend its use in emerging technologies like decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN) and artificial intelligence (AI) agents.
Matt Hougan, Bitwise's head of research, also noted that Ethereum, along with Base—an Ethereum layer-2 scaling network—is already playing a significant role in AI technologies. Dawson added that the growth of layer-2 solutions, which enhance interoperability, could drive substantial price gains for Ether. He further stated that Ethereum’s adoption would benefit from a favorable regulatory environment under Trump’s presidency.
Options Market Shows Strong Bullish Sentiment for Ether
Despite Ether’s price consolidating around the $3,500 mark since mid-December 2024, Dawson explained that the options market tells a more bullish story. He pointed to the significant skew toward call options on Derive.xyz, where open interest in calls is 250% higher than in puts, signaling strong bullish sentiment from traders seeking upside leverage.
However, Dawson cautioned that in a "bearish case," Ether’s price could dip below $2,000 if certain factors don’t materialize. He noted that the spot Ether ETF may fail to gain institutional interest, or it could lose ground to a successful Solana ETF. Dawson also warned that Ethereum’s market share is being challenged by other layer-1 blockchains, which may offer higher risk but also greater reward potential.
Growing Confidence in Ether and Its Long-Term Holders
In terms of investor sentiment, Dawson observed that the number of long-term Ether holders has steadily increased throughout 2024. On December 30, IntoTheBlock reported that the percentage of Ether held for the long term had risen from 59% in January to 75% by the end of 2024. This contrasts with a decrease in long-term Bitcoin holders, as confidence in Ether continues to rise.
In conclusion, while Ethereum faces competition from other blockchains, Dawson believes that if the Pectra upgrade succeeds and regulatory conditions align, Ether could experience substantial growth in 2025. However, he cautioned that the potential for a decline below $2,000 remains if Ethereum fails to secure its position in the market.
January 2025, Cryptoniteuae