The most recent Bitcoin halving event took place on April 19, 2024, generating considerable excitement among investors who recalled the impressive returns from previous halving years. Notably, the last halving in 2020 delivered an astounding return of +304.1%. However, industry experts like Ki Young Ju express skepticism about whether the current market can replicate such outstanding performance.
To understand the context, it’s essential to review past halving events. Bitcoin has undergone four halving events to date, with the first occurring in 2012. That year, the market returned +183.5%, which, while commendable, was significantly lower than the +1,435% return seen in 2011. The second halving in 2016 resulted in a yearly return of +123.8%, surpassing the previous year’s +34.4%.
The trend continued with the third halving in 2020, which saw a remarkable +304.1% return—three times better than the +90.9% return from 2019. Following this pattern, in 2023, the market displayed a +155.4% return. Given this historical performance, expectations for 2024 are high, as the market would need to achieve a return exceeding +155.4% to align with the typical halving trend.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $60,788, up from approximately $44,172.80 at the start of the year, marking a growth of only 37.61%. This performance has raised concerns among analysts, who question whether the market can gain the momentum needed for a significant rally in the coming weeks.
Ki Young Ju has pointed out that 285 days have passed in 2024 without substantial price movement. He warns that if Bitcoin fails to generate significant momentum in the next 14 days, this year may record the longest period of sideways trading in any halving year, which could defy historical trends.
The Bitcoin market has recently faced challenges, particularly influenced by geopolitical events, such as the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict. On October 1, Bitcoin slipped to a low of $60,817 from $63,342, continuing its downward trend to a monthly low of $60,326 on October 10. While there was a brief attempt at recovery, with the price reaching $62,816 on October 6, selling pressure quickly resumed.
Despite these challenges, October has historically been a favorable month for Bitcoin. In October 2023, for instance, the market saw a return of +28.5%. During the first twelve days of that month, Bitcoin fluctuated between $27,995 and $26,744, before experiencing a significant surge on October 13, when it climbed from $26,779 to $34,482.
For the current October to align with the broader halving year trend, a repeat of last year’s performance is crucial. The need for a bullish trend is pressing, as time is running out to capture the potential gains typically associated with halving years.
As we analyze the implications of the recent halving and current market dynamics, the path forward for Bitcoin remains uncertain. Investors are closely watching for signs of a bullish reversal that could revitalize the market. Given the historical significance of halving events and their impact on Bitcoin’s price, stakeholders are hopeful that the coming weeks will bring the momentum necessary to fulfill the lofty expectations set by previous halving years.
October 2024, Cryptoniteuae